Last week we observed that Twitter had registered 300 million accounts, based on the assumption that all accounts are registered sequentially and started with number 1, back in March 2006. From observing registration dates from Twitter accounts and their id’s this seems a reasonable assumption.
As some observers noted, registered accounts are not the same as active accounts. In the beginning of February, Twitter communicated that there are “about 200 million accounts on Twitter now". Currently you can read here that Twitter has 200+ million registered users, 155 million tweets per day and 460,000 new sign-ups every day. With an account base of 200 million in the beginning of February and about 0.5 million sign ups a day, this should equate to about 260 million accounts currently.
How does this compare with our observations and estimates?
We believe that from all registered accounts only 12% gets cancelled, which means that out of 300 million registered accounts 36 million were cancelled and 264 million are theoretically still active. This seems consistent with data communicated by Twitter.
From the estimated 264 million currently registered accounts, we believe about 45% has never sent a tweet. This does not necessarily mean they are not active users of Twitter. There may be accounts that are only used to follow other accounts, without feeling the need to send tweets themselves. About 20% of the active users have sent more than 10 tweets, while 10% of users have sent more than 100 tweets. While these numbers seem fairly consistent between older and newer accounts,they don't say much about currently active users.
From the estimated 264 million active accounts, it is estimated that almost 40 million have sent a tweet less than 2 days ago, 60 million in the last week and more than 85 million users have sent at least 1 tweet in the last 30 days.
Based on our assumption that 45% of accounts have never sent a tweet, 55% of users must have sent at least 1 tweet. The average of tweets sent per day for this group is estimated to be a little more than 1 tweet per day. This equates to about 150 million tweets per day, not far from the official number by Twitter....
Please note that these estimates are based on limited information and interpretations and may or may not be accurate. Only Twitter, with acccess to all account information and log-in data, will be able to provide complete acccurate data.